Benjamin Francis is a Ph.D. candidate in peace studies and political science working within the Keough School of Global Affairs' Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies. He holds a B.A. in international relations and English language from the University of Westminster and an M.A. in global development and international political economy from the University of Leeds. During the spring 2024 semester, he worked with the Nanovic Institute to develop a new survey tool to assess the relationship between the influence of King Charles III and the U.K. public's perception of climate change.
The climate crisis continues to drive significant destruction and suffering globally with climate models forecasting that such trends are only likely to increase. Rising temperatures, sea levels, and an increase in both frequency and severity of extreme weather events threaten to create significant social impacts, often for groups of people already suffering from issues of marginalization. In this context, leaders must seek immediate and effective solutions in terms of mitigation and adaptation. I am grateful to the Nanovic Institute for supporting my research which I hope offers some insight into the strategies that might be utilized to accomplish this.
In order to pursue these climate solutions we know it is critical to build the political coalitions necessary to enable the passage of the kind of pro-climate policy that is urgently required. There are powerful interests working against this kind of climate action, most prominently from within the fossil fuel industry, and previous scholarship has suggested that opportunities to counter that influence are created by alliances of groups and interests minded to tackle the climate crisis, including political leaders.
Public opinion in the UK
The political context around environmental issues and climate change in the United Kingdom is complex. In many ways, the country has been seen as a global leader, being the first developed country to legislate in support of a net zero target for carbon emissions by 2050. The country has also hosted a recent COP event and has been a key player in developing the Paris Agreement.
However, significant resistance to pro-climate action abounds and the issue has become increasingly politicized in recent years. Populist political leaders have attacked prominent environmental policy and legislation, including the UK’s commitment to net zero, in an effort to boost personal political fortunes or to seek electoral advantages.
In this British context, and indeed in any democratic environment, public opinion plays a huge role in shaping how these debates occur and the policy outcomes that emerge from them. Where a general public consensus in favor of climate action evolves over time, elected leaders will respond to that concentration of public opinion. Where climate change and the need for climate action become a salient political issue amongst the electorate, legislation will surely follow.
This leads us to the question of what drives such opinion. Undoubtedly the answer is a complex mixture of social, political, and cultural phenomena but existing research offers us some reason to believe that on environmental issues, public opinion is shaped by elite position-taking in a way that isn’t true for other topics. As a British citizen and a political scientist, I am especially interested to understand if this is the case in the UK and, if so, how that elite-led opinion shaping occurs. A unique situation has occurred in British public life that has offered an opportunity to explore these questions.
When King Charles III was crowned as the new British monarch in 2023 it represented the first time a committed environmentalist had held a position as the UK’s head of state. In a context where the monarchy is often most popular amongst the demographic groups that are least likely to support climate policy in the UK, this presents a rare opportunity to interrogate elite influence on environmental public opinion.
Assessing the impact of King Charles
The results of this research project will offer insights into the strategies that may help to build consensus and create coalitions for climate action in the UK and even more widely.
With the support of the Nanovic Institute, I have designed a novel survey experiment to examine this relationship in two dimensions. First by measuring the impact of the King’s position on respondents’ climate opinions, and secondly by comparing that influence to other political and non-political figures. This second measure allows for an assessment of how a monarch who retains a political position but within a largely symbolic role, is viewed by the public when taking cues on climate policy.
This survey experiment will take place using an online method, with respondents engaging in questions via an online portal. This allows for a range of respondents to be involved but it also crucially requires zero international air travel to conduct, a key feature of a research project attempting to ground itself in ethical environmental practices.
The results of this research project will offer insights into the strategies that may help to build consensus and create coalitions for climate action in the UK and even more widely. It will offer a better understanding of how different public figures can influence the discussion on climate-related issues and potentially highlight opportunities for future cooperation and messaging in support of effective action to address the climate crisis and create a more sustainable future. I am excited to see what the research finds.